Investing is a real-time playground for decision-making. Oftentimes “do nothing” is the right answer, but sometimes doing nothing can lead to very bad outcomes.
I discussed NFTs briefly last week. Just in case you don’t know what bubbles look like, the current NFT hype is a great example. I’m excited about the technology, but the current craze is unsustainable. The image above was sold for a few thousand dollars. The buyer tried to flip it for $300k. I’m not joking. Check out the short thread I created about the topic.
There’s definitely something shady going on. For example, the artist behind crytotrucks gave away the very first truck he created. The receiver then tried selling it for 10 ETH ($19k). Shockingly no one knew what a good deal looked like, so they continued to reduce the price. The receiver ended up selling it back to the original artist. It looks like the artist really wanted it back because he paid 1.25 ETH to get back something he gave away for free.If this makes no sense, then we’re on the same page. I may not be interested in buying and selling NFTs, but I am glad all transactions are public. I might as well be entertained since I’m not going to get rich off the bubble.
Here’s my two cents on a few random investing topics:
- SPACs — not interested. I’ve had my eye on a few but can never pull the trigger because most SPACs aren’t structured to benefit the investor. I never buy into IPOs either, so maybe this isn’t saying much.
- S&P 500 — the top ten holdings will look very different by 2030. I think the entire index will be shaken up. Some of the new members probably aren’t public yet, or they’re currently small/medium cap companies.
- Disney+ > Netflix — for video streaming, my money has always been on Disney+. Back in the before times (pre-pandemic), I told a few coworkers how Disney would most likely smash through their subscriber goals. There’s no magic here. Simply put, creating your content in-house and controlling distribution is good for business. Disney, and other media companies, now know that licensing their content to Netflix was a shitty deal.
- Game Subscriptions — I believe Microsoft’s Xbox Game Pass will win because of a similar strategy: in-house content creation + owning distribution. Their $7.5 billion acquisition of Zenimax, the parent company of Bethesda, was finalized this week. That’s a lot more ammo to create content.